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Prediction for CME (2015-11-04T14:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-11-04T14:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/9643/-1
CME Note: CME is connected to a M3.7 flare at AR 12443 very close to disk center, GOES light curve is a long duration event, with extensive post-event loops visible in AIA 131. Large, fast wave emanating from flare site, dimming to the west and north of the AR in AIA 193, dark absorption material ejected at west end of AR seen in AIA 304
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2015-11-06T17:34Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0
Dst min. in nT: -87
Dst min. time: 2015-11-07T08:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-11-07T14:30Z (-3.5h, +5.5h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 80.0%
Prediction Method: DBM
Prediction Method Note:

CME input parameters:
CME take-off date & UT time: 04-NOV-2015 at 16UT
γ = 0.20×10-7 km-1, w = 400 km/s, R0 = 20 rSun, v0 = 600 km/s, λ = 30°, φCME = 10°
Rtarget = 0.99 AU, φ target = 0° (Earth)


CME arrival at target (date & UT time): 07-NOV-2015 at 14:30UT (+/- 5.5h)
Impact speed at target (at 0.99 AU): 500 km/s (+/- 100km/s)

Lead Time: 31.78 hour(s)
Difference: -20.93 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Manuela Temmer (UNIGRAZ) on 2015-11-05T09:47Z

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